Bitcoin bounced back to $64,300 hours before the Fed's decision

Bitcoin bounced back to $64,350 — almost $1,500 above the 11-day low of $62,828 set a day earlier. The move comes just hours before the Fed's rate decision, due today, July 29, according to CoinDesk.

• 24-hour range: $62,828 to $64,347, a roughly +1.5% move on the day
• Bitcoin ETF outflows hit $465 million on July 23-24, then sharply slowed to $11 million by July 27
• Key resistance sits at $65,000-$65,500, a zone that has capped rallies repeatedly; the 200-day moving average sits at $72,001
• Nearest support is $62,000, then the psychological $60,000 level

Citadel Securities' model puts the odds of a surprise 25-basis-point hike at today's meeting at roughly one in three. The market's base case is that rates hold at 3.50%-3.75%, the same range in place since June, Yahoo Finance notes.

We've covered how bitcoin options traders were positioned ahead of this exact meeting — bitcoin options traders are calm about this week, not the next six months; that data showed participants weren't bracing for shocks from today's decision specifically, but were still paying up for protection further out.

A bounce hours before the decision doesn't mean the market already knows the outcome: moves of this size in either direction typically happen in the narrow window before major macro events, when positions get reshuffled at the last minute rather than as a result of any fundamental repricing.

*This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.*