Bitwise CIO: Strategy Won't Sell BTC — and the Bear Market Is Closer to a Bottom Than People Think

One of July's biggest market fears is building: what happens to Bitcoin if Strategy — the largest corporate holder with over 500,000 BTC — is forced to sell? JPMorgan estimated potential forced sales at $2.8 billion amid risks of MSCI index exclusion. In June, market rumors that Strategy was already selling became one of the triggers for BTC's collapse to $57,950, CryptoBriefing reports.

Hougan (Bitwise): 'No mechanism for forced selling'

Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise Asset Management — which manages $4B+ in crypto ETFs — has publicly rebutted this narrative. According to him, there is no plausible near-term mechanism that would force Strategy to part with its bitcoin, Bitbo reports.

Hougan's three concrete arguments:

1. Reserves. Strategy holds $1.44 billion in cash — enough to cover debt obligations and dividends for at least one year without selling a single BTC.

2. Debt structure. Annual obligations total roughly $800 million, but all key repayments are deferred until 2027. There is no near-term pressure.

3. Saylor's control. Michael Saylor controls 42% of Strategy's voting shares. His conviction in Bitcoin's long-term value is among the strongest of any public company executive. A corporate reversal is impossible without his consent.

"You'd be hard pressed to find a human being with more conviction on bitcoin's long-term value than Saylor" — Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise.

MSCI risk: scary, but not fatal

Hougan does not dismiss the MSCI exclusion risk — he actually puts its probability at around 75%. But he points to history: index inclusions and exclusions have far less market impact than is commonly assumed. Short-term pressure is possible, but not catastrophic. The 'forced selling' thesis, in his view, is a media-amplified panic with no real financial substance in the near term.

'Rounding bottom' and the path to $100,000

Hougan describes the current cycle not as a classic crash but as a 'rounding bottom' — a slow accumulation pattern before a reversal. Standard Chartered analysts called a bottom near $59,000, representing a 53% decline from October 2025's peak at $126,000. Bitwise's year-end 2026 target is $100,000 — roughly 70% from current levels. Hougan sees three metrics pointing toward a reversal: sustained ETF inflows, growing corporate BTC treasury adoption, and recovering on-chain activity indicators, MEXC reports.

On-chain data shows that large whales — wallets with 1,000+ BTC — are continuing to buy on every dip, holding a HODL strategy that has historically preceded the start of a new bull cycle.

Takeaway

Hougan's thesis is straightforward: the Strategy fears are a media narrative, not a real financial risk on any 12-month horizon. While the market sells in panic, Bitwise maintains a constructive view and expects a reversal in the second half of 2026.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.