The Fed could catch Bitcoin off guard today — here's why

The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision today at 2 p.m. ET, with Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference following at 2:30. Unlike June's meeting, where the outcome was largely expected, this one has markets genuinely split — and for Bitcoin, trading around $64,000, the stakes are real, CoinDesk notes.

• CME federal funds futures put the odds of a rate hike at roughly 35-38% — an unusually high level of uncertainty this close to a decision; Citadel is even predicting a hike will happen
• Both 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields have broken key trendlines that had defined a shallow correction since October 2023, suggesting rates on the bond market may already be accelerating higher
• WTI oil has risen nearly 20% this month as US-Iran talks stall, threatening to revive inflation pressure that eased somewhat in June thanks to cheaper oil

If the Fed hikes or simply sounds more hawkish than expected, rising bond yields would create fresh headwinds for risk assets, crypto included. But if the central bank shrugs off the oil rebound and keeps its tone dovish, the market could get a sharp relief rally instead. The Fed chair has already swung Bitcoin in both directions within a matter of weeks — more on his earlier remarks here.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.