Grayscale: Bitcoin may have already bottomed — if the Fed holds off on rate hikes

Grayscale analysts say Bitcoin may have already passed the bottom of the current bear market — under the right macroeconomic conditions. That's according to CoinGape, citing research from the firm's head of research, Zach Pandl.

“Bitcoin's price may be already close to its low.”

— Zach Pandl, Head of Research at Grayscale

Quote source: CoinGape.

Two views on the cycle

The report weighs two frameworks. Under the classic four-year halving cycle, a bottom typically forms about a year after the cycle peak and roughly two and a half years after the halving — pointing to a possible low in September or October 2026, with further downside possible given the historical average drawdown of around 80% from the top. The second framework treats bitcoin as a macro asset whose behavior increasingly tracks broader economic conditions rather than the emission cycle alone. Pandl favors the second view.

What the bottom depends on

Grayscale's base (bullish) case: the CLARITY Act passes the Senate, Strategy stabilizes its balance sheet, and the Fed holds rates steady — in which case, analysts believe, no further major decline is needed to complete the bear market. The downside case is the mirror image: the bill fails to pass this year, Strategy and other crypto treasuries keep deleveraging, and inflation forces the Fed's hand on rate hikes. Adding to the uncertainty is a change at the Fed's helm, with the more hawkish Kevin Warsh expected to replace Kevin Hassett.

What the numbers show

Bitcoin is down more than 50% from its October 2025 all-time high of $125,000 and recently dipped below $60,000. According to CryptoQuant, just 13.5% of short-term holder supply is in profit — 86.5% is underwater, pointing to a zone of significant unrealized pain. Adding pressure is spot bitcoin ETF outflows: Galaxy Digital estimates around 120,000 BTC left the funds in 2026, a sharp reversal from prior years' inflows.

One risk on the list: quantum threats

Among the uncertainty factors Grayscale lists as a risk is concern over quantum computing. We covered this in detail in our piece on the BlackRock, Coinbase, and Strategy-backed consortium that pledged $15 million to prepare bitcoin for the post-quantum era.

This piece is informational, not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any asset.