Coding jobs took 28% of UK computer science graduates

Coding and software development were the fastest-falling occupations for British graduates last year, according to data compiled for the Guardian University Guide and reported on Saturday. The numbers come from the Higher Education Statistics Agency survey of more than 350,000 people who finished their courses in 2024, asked about their careers 15 months later.

“It is clear that something did happen to the software developer labour market last year. While I'm reluctant to say that AI did it, because there's little evidence, it's very hard to escape the conclusion that AI has played a role.”

— Charlie Ball, Jisc, quoted by the Guardian

Charlie Ball, head of labour market intelligence at Jisc

Two numbers, read together

Matt Hiely-Rayner of Intelligent Metrix, who compiles the guide, put the change into two figures, and the two together say more than either alone:

• The share going into coding or programming fell from about 40% to 28%, a drop of 12 points.
• The share landing any graduate-level job at all fell from more than 60% two years ago to 50%.
• Those two falls are almost the same size, which means most of the graduates who left coding did not land in another graduate role.

Ball pointed to computer science graduates diversifying into cybersecurity and network engineering, which the numbers support only in part. A 12-point fall in coding jobs alongside a 10-point fall in graduate employment leaves about two points that moved sideways. The other ten left graduate-level work. The baselines differ, one comparison running against last year and the other against two years ago, and both point the same way.

Hiely-Rayner named the cause without hedging it: with AI providing cheap and responsive grunt work in this field, he said, it is hard not to conclude that this is behind the trend. Ball keeps more distance, saying he is reluctant to name AI because the evidence is thin while finding the conclusion hard to escape. Both are describing pure coding jobs that were in short supply through 2025. The Guardian reads the figures as confirming a prediction that an AI agent able to produce software and analysis would disrupt the labour market.

The reaction one cycle later

Economics graduates show the same pattern in a different industry. Demand fell for well-paid financial roles such as economists and management consultants, and Ball said most finance employers he speaks to are changing jobs rather than cutting them, expecting new hires to arrive familiar with AI. Some are laying people off to gain an edge, which he doubts will hold, because every firm is experimenting at once.

Students reacted a cycle later. UK computing acceptances came in at 31,670 for 2025, down 3% on the year while total acceptances across all subjects rose 3.1%. Among 18-year-olds the fall reached 9% in England, 10% in Scotland and 21% in Wales. Engineering and technology went the other way, up 12.5% to 30,020, and mathematical sciences rose 10.5% to 9,220.

What it does not prove yet

The labour market signal reached applications within a year, which is fast for a system that takes three years to produce a graduate. It has not shown up as output. Britain's July GDP put AI in the numbers as turnover rather than productivity, and the six deployments we counted this week came with smaller numbers than the forecasts around them.

The cheapest labour in software got cheaper, and the entry rung took the hit. That is a measurable fact about 2025 hiring, and it says nothing yet about whether the work disappeared or moved. The 2028 survey, covering the students choosing degrees today, will answer that.

None of this should be read as personalized investment advice.