Bitcoin faces one key level before the bear market is over

Bitcoin has surged 25% to around $80,000 over the past week, but one resistance level stands between the current rally and confirmation that the bear market has ended, CoinDesk reported.

That level is the 50-week simple moving average, currently sitting around $81,087. Reclaiming it on a weekly close has historically been one of the clearest signals that a bear market has run its course rather than paused for breath.

“11 of 13 times BTCUSD reclaimed the 50w MA during completed bear markets, the bear-market low was in. It currently sits around $82k. If BTCUSD reclaims it on weekly close, history suggests the bear market would likely be over.”

— Galaxy Research

Moving averages track the average price over a set window, commonly 50, 100, or 200 periods, across daily, weekly, and other timeframes, to gauge where momentum sits. Because so many traders and analysts watch the same levels, those levels hold as real support and resistance because enough market participants treat them that way.

On shorter timeframes, bitcoin has already cleared its own hurdles. The price has broken through all three key moving averages on the daily chart, a move Dan Tapiero, founder of the multibillion-dollar digital asset investment fund 50T Funds, called an "extreme momentous break up in BTC and complex" in a post on X.

Tapiero went further, arguing the cycle low is already behind the market. "Hardest thing to buy here if you aren't long already," he wrote. "Greatest amount of pain is back to 100k immediately." Other traders echoed similar calls on social media over the weekend.

The rally has coincided with a stretch of consistent institutional demand. Spot bitcoin ETFs pulled in a sixth straight day of inflows last week, adding another data point to the case that this move is being driven by sustained buying rather than a short-lived squeeze.

One indicator complicates the bullish read. The seven-day rate of change, which tracks the rolling percentage move in price over the past week, sits near 25%. Readings at or above that level have been rare over the past five years, and each prior instance gave way to a pullback or a stretch of consolidation rather than an immediate continuation higher.

Options traders are already positioning for a breakout regardless. On Monday, one or more traders bought 2,000 bitcoin call options with an $82,000 strike price expiring Sept. 4, a $2.9 million bet that the price clears the 50-week average within two weeks.

• Current price: bitcoin near $80,000, up 25% over the past week
• Key resistance: 50-week simple moving average, around $81,087
• Historical pattern: reclaiming the 50-week MA preceded the bear-market low in 11 of 13 completed bear markets, per Galaxy Research
• Caution signal: seven-day rate of change near 25%, a rare reading that has typically preceded a pullback or consolidation
• Market bet: $2.9 million in bitcoin call options targeting an $82,000 strike by Sept. 4

The setup leaves bulls with two levels to watch at once: a resistance line worth reclaiming and a momentum gauge warning that the market may need to cool off first.

This piece is informational, not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any asset.