The average coin sold in profit made 0.2%. The price rose 12.8%

Bitcoin's Spent Output Profit Ratio has stayed above 1 since 19 August, which makes 22 days and the longest run of the year, FXStreet reports. Above 1 means the coins moving onchain are, on average, changing hands for more than they last cost.

The reading is 1.002.

That is two tenths of one percent. On a coin worth $78,190 it comes to $156 of realised profit, which is less than a single day's ordinary price swing.

The gap between the streak and the rally

Now set it against the price. Bitcoin closed 19 August at $69,335 and sits at $78,190, up 12.8% across the same 22 days. The move is worth $8,855 a coin, sixty-four times the average profit anyone actually took.

Those two numbers describe different populations. If holders who rode the whole 12.8% were selling, the average would sit far above 1.002. It does not, which says the coins doing the moving were bought close to where they are being sold.

Recent buyers trading around their own cost basis produce exactly this shape: a streak above breakeven, held by the thinnest possible margin.

What the analysts will and will not say

“In bear markets, rallies back into profit tend to get sold. In bull markets, short sharp moves below break-even tend to become buy-the-dip setups. The current structure is starting to look more like those early bull-market recoveries.”

— Checkonchain, FXStreet, 9 September 2026

Checkonchain, the on-chain analytics service, writing on X. Source: FXStreet, 9 September 2026

David Puell, a portfolio manager at ARK Invest, wants more before he moves. He says the metric needs to hold with investors realising profits consistently and without the price making a new low, and adds that for now he leaves it as a downside risk.

The source reporting the streak names short-term holder SOPR. It puts no figure on the long-term holder series, so any claim that both cohorts are taking profit is not settled by this reading.

The claim we published against it yesterday

We published the opposite framing yesterday morning. CryptoQuant told BTC-ECHO that mid- to long-term holders are selling at a loss while attention is thin, and we measured the attention part as real.

Both can stand. Aggregate SOPR covers every coin that moved, while a cohort series covers one group, and a market where recent buyers churn near their entry can show an aggregate above 1 with an older cohort under water. The aggregate does not settle the cohort question, and neither reading is the whole picture.

What survives is narrow and checkable: 22 days above breakeven, a margin of 0.2%, and a price up 12.8% that almost nobody moving coins has realised. Our own activity index put turnover in the bottom 6.5% of 384 stored days this week, which fits a market changing hands quietly rather than one distributing into strength.

None of this should be read as personalized investment advice.