The dollar made an 18-month high and bitcoin rose 9.7% through it

The dollar index touched about 102.5 on Monday, up from roughly 99 in early September, and bitcoin traded at $86,141. CoinDesk calls that bitcoin holding firm. Over the same five weeks bitcoin went from $78,553 to $86,155, which is 9.7%.

“The US dollar has reached an 18-month high, driven by strong macroeconomic data, a further rise in bond yields, and a rebound in oil prices.”

— Александр Купцикевич, FxPro, 1 октября 2026

Checking the 18 months against the ECB

The European Central Bank's reference rate put the euro at 1.159 on 1 September and 1.1225 on 2 October, its most recent fixing, a fall of 3.15%. The euro last sat at that level on 16 May 2025, 507 days ago. Of the 385 fixings the ECB has published since April 2025, fourteen came in at or below Friday's level, and thirteen of those fall in a single week of May 2025. The dollar index 18-month high that FxPro flagged on 1 October holds up against the ECB's own series.

What bitcoin did while that happened

Through the dollar's best stretch in a year and a half, both rose, and bitcoin rose almost three times as fast as the dollar index. We watched the same thing on 30 September, when consumer confidence hit a 12-year low and the dollar closed above 101 anyway.

On 2 October we put support 4.1% below the price and first resistance 9.0% above, anchored at $86,397. That gave $82,855 and $94,173. Bitcoin is now $86,155, which is 0.3% under the anchor and 9.3% short of resistance. The payrolls report came and went inside the band without testing either side.

The rate path moved sideways in time

The Fed raised by 25 basis points in September to 3.75-4%, and the market now treats 4.5-4.75% by June 2027 as the likeliest landing, which is three more increases. On 2 October we wrote that October hike odds had collapsed from 69% to 28%. Traders still expect tightening, later.

The US data backs the dollar: second-quarter GDP revised from 1.6% to 2.2%, consumer spending up 0.9% in August, core inflation at 3.0%. Europe supplies the other half of the move. France's deficit is tracking from 5.1% toward 5.6% of GDP, the French-German yield spread sits at 130 basis points, and Pedro Sanchez called a snap Spanish election for 29 November.

Part of this is the dollar rising and part is the euro falling, and the second half unwinds the moment French and Spanish politics stop supplying headlines.

Informational material, not investment advice. The levels quoted are our own earlier measurements, and a band holding for three days says nothing about the fourth.