Producer prices matched forecast. Bitcoin fell 0.95% in nine minutes

The US producer price index for August came out at 12:30 UTC at plus 0.4% month on month, with the core measure at plus 0.3%. Forecasters had the headline at 0.4% and the core at 0.3%, so the release matched them rather than undershooting. Bitcoin fell 0.95% in the nine minutes that followed.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers:

• Final demand: plus 0.4% in August, and 5.4% over twelve months.
• Core, excluding foods, energy and trade services: plus 0.3%, and 4.7% over twelve months.
• July revised to plus 0.1%, June still minus 0.1%.

August is four times July's revised pace, and the twelve-month rate of 5.4% is the part a soft reading has to argue with.

Composition settles the argument faster. Final demand goods rose 1.1% while services rose 0.1%, and energy inside that goods index rose 4.2%. Diesel fuel alone rose 24.1%. Residential electric power fell 0.5%, the only part of the energy story that went the friendly way. Strip food and energy out of the goods index and it still rose 0.4%, so diesel is not the whole of it.

“Over three-fourths of the broad-based rise can be attributed to prices for final demand energy.”

— Bureau of Labor Statistics, PPI news release, 10 September 2026

Bureau of Labor Statistics, PPI release, 10 September 2026

What bitcoin did with it

We measured the tape rather than reading commentary about it. Across the half hour before the release, BTCUSDT traded 24.5 bitcoin a minute on Binance. In the release minute it traded 423, seventeen times as much.

Price spiked first and reversed. The 12:30 candle printed a high of $77,959.20, and the low across the nine minutes after the release was $77,050. That is a $909 spread, 1.17% of the high. At 12:39 the price stood at $77,057, down 0.95% from the pre-release close of $77,796.90.

Where the soft reading breaks

The reading going round this morning says producer inflation came in below fears, that the energy scare did not materialise, and that the Federal Reserve therefore has more room. Two of those three claims do not survive the release. The print matched the forecast on both the headline and the core, and the energy scare is what the statisticians attribute three quarters of the goods rise to.

The liquidity half of that argument is still standing. The Treasury runs a buyback operation today, and we sized what those operations actually move yesterday. Meanwhile ETF flows turned negative for a second session on Wednesday, so the fund channel is not adding to demand this week either.

Consumer prices for August arrive tomorrow. That is the print with the Fed's mandate attached, and it will be read against a producer index that just posted 5.4% annual growth.

Nothing here should be taken as financial advice; treat it as information to consider.