An analyst gives the new bitcoin cycle 45 days to confirm

The market strategist Bob Loukas gives bitcoin 30 to 45 days from late October to confirm a new cycle, using a 60-day cycle model with $79,600 as the level that would cancel it. Two dates sit inside that window: the Federal Reserve meeting on 28 October, with inflation at 3.7%, and roughly $12bn of options expiring on the 30th.

“A clean setup: a transparent technical picture where the risks are clear and the vector points upward.”

— Bob Loukas, Market strategist, on the current setup

Bitcoin trades at $81,761 as we write, down 2.08% on the day, which leaves the cancellation level 2.6% below the current price. So far the arithmetic of the setup is simple and public.

We tested the seasonal claim

The part worth testing is the seasonal claim underneath it, that late October to early December is historically the best window for momentum. We measured every November and December on Binance monthly candles from 2017 through 2025, which is nine complete years.

November finished higher in 4 of those 9 years. The average return is +5.1% and the median is −7.1%. December finished higher in 3 of 9, average +6.3%, median −3.0%. Taking the two months as one window: up in 4 years of 9, average +16.7%, median −19.3%.

What the average hides

That gap between average and median is the whole story. The positive average exists because of two years, 2017 at +112.2% and 2020 at +109.7%. Remove them and the typical year inside the supposedly best window lost about a fifth of its value. Seasonality here describes two bull markets, not a pattern.

The level, measured

The cancellation level is also measurable. Twenty of the last sixty daily closes sat below $79,600, the lowest at $75,644 on 15 September. Whether that counts against the setup depends on where the 60-day cycle is dated from, and the public version of the model does not say.

Two things will move the price in this window whatever a cycle model says. The Fed meeting and the month-end expiry are on the calendar, and the demand side has already thinned: ETF inflows fell 96% in a single session this week, and funding flipped negative the last time price approached this area, which we measured in October. A new bitcoin cycle will be visible in closes above or below a published number, and both numbers are public.

Informational material, not investment advice. Historical returns are measured on Binance monthly candles from 2017 to 2025, past months do not predict the next one, and nothing here is a forecast.